Key Highlights of the Ontario Fall Economic Statement

• October 30^th, 2026
• Community, Advocacy

The Ontario Government released their 2026 Fall Economic Statement (FES) yesterday entitled A Plan to Protect Ontario. This marks the second FES in a row and fourth straight fiscal document, including the 2025 and 2026 provincial budgets, to use this title. Tariffs and the Canada-US relationship also repeated as the Ford government’s primary focal point, with Minister of Finance Peter Bethlenfalvy calling on the need to build a more resilient and self-reliant Ontario economy for the future.

While FES 2026 divides its key initiatives under two official pillars; Fortifying Ontario’s Industrial Base and Build Ontario for Growth, an underlaying theme of Restoring Trust and Accountability can be found throughout the document. The provincial government’s plan to balance the budget has also been delayed until at least 2029-30, the same fiscal year of the next provincial election.

Key Figures:

• Ontario’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is projected to grow 0.5% in 2026 and by 1.5% in 2027.
• Ontario’s 2026 GDP growth is down from the 0.9% projection in FES 2025.
• The projected deficit for 2026-27 has risen to $16.9 billion, up $3.1 billion (22.5%) originally projected in Budget 2026 back in March.
• Ontario’s current net-debt to GDP ratio is forecast to be 37.4%, originally forecasted at 37.7% in the 2026 budget.

Protect Ontario: Fortify Ontario’s Industrial Base

Ontario has responded to the ongoing tariff and trade with the US with $30 billion in tariff relief since April 2025 and introduced measures to protect jobs, reinforce domestic supply chains, and prioritize Ontario businesses through public procurement. While new initiatives such as the Canada-Ontario action plan are expected to further support critical industries in Ontario and across the country, FES 2026 largely focuses on a continuation of programs rather than offering any net-new affordability or cost saving measures.

Specific Highlights:

• $8.7 billion for the new Canada-Ontario action plan which aims to further reinforce domestic supply-chains and capabilities in highly tariff-impacted industries such as steel, auto, and critical minerals.
• Advancing the province’s Buy Ontario agenda through the promotion of bulk purchases and priority for Ontario and Canadian suppliers for government procurements.
• Further supporting employment transition supports through Protect Ontario Workers Employment Response (POWER) Centres which has supported over 27,000 Ontarians who have lost their jobs due to tariff related impacts.
• Highlighting the $30 billion in tariff relief and support Ontario has provided workers and businesses since April 2025 through programs such as the Ontario Trade Together Fund (OTTF), the Protect Ontario Financing Program (POFP), and the Trade-Impacted Community Program (TICP).

Protect Ontario: Build Ontario for Growth

Amid ongoing trade uncertainty and heightened global competition, the provincial government continues to focus on positioning Ontario as a leading destination for investment, innovation, and job creation. These initiatives aim to enhance economic self-reliance, create new opportunities for Ontario businesses and workers, and support Ontario’s long-term economic growth and security.

Specific Highlights:

• Providing an estimated $8 billion over the next five years in income tax relief for businesses across Ontario through the Ontario Competitiveness Tax Cut.
• This follows the federal government’s announcement to allow for companies to write off 100% of certain assets such as fibre optic cables and machinery and is expected to bring Ontario’s marginal effective tax rate to 3.6%.
• Expanded eligibility for the Ontario Research and Development Tax Credit and Ontario Innovation Tax Credits which is estimated to provide and additional $50 million over the next three years to support Ontario businesses lower the cost of R&D.
• Outlining the $12.5 billion in savings Ontarian’s have realised through cutting the gas and fuel tax, lowering the cost of transit fares through the One Fare program, and removing tolls, among other initiatives.
• Supporting more housing startups and housing enabling-infrastructure by investing $8.8 billion over the next decade into the Canada-Ontario Partnership to Build.
• This investment also includes the HST rebate announced in Budget 2026 for eligible buyers of new homes as well as supporting investments that will allow municipalities to reduce development charges.
• Echoing the Ontario’s plan to build by investing over $210 billion into major infrastructure projects over the next ten years including:
  • $31 billion for new and existing highway projects.
  • $63 billion for public transit.
  • $6.4 billion to build and upgrade 58,000 long-term care beds.
  • $30 billion to build new schools and childcare spaces.
  • $5.5 billion to support critical repairs and upgrades to postsecondary institutions.
  • $64 billion to support more than 50 hospital projects.
• The promise to develop an AI Industrial Strategy focused on commercialisation, business adoption, and workforce development.
• Signaling Ontario’s intention to issue a Security and Resilience Bond to boost investment and strengthen Ontario’s defence supply chain.
• Ontario would be the first province in Canada establish a bond of this kind.

Restoring Trust & Accountability

Despite a growing deficit and overall spending, Ontario echoed its commitment to being prudent fiscal managers and continue to find ways to make government programs more efficient by removing red tape. As part of this commitment, the Ontario government plans to crack down on waste, abuse, and fraud while improving investments into public services that keep Ontarian’s safe and prosperous.

Specific Highlights:

• A commitment to review funding for priority programs and eliminate wasteful spending and fraud.
• Echoing Ontario’s investment of $32.5 million for expanded border enforcement capacity to provide police with tools to detect and deter cross-border crime.
• New upcoming measures to enhance enforcement of illegal cannabis in Ontario.
• Supporting businesses across Ontario by reviewing all 375 business-facing permits across the province.
• Streamlining eligibility for the Ontario Computer Animation and Special Effects (OCASE) Tax Credit to just include film and television producers.
• Moving forward with the development of new Digital credentials to enhance privacy and security and provide better convenience for Ontarians.