Ontario Fall Economic Statement – Support for Businesses

• November 7^th, 2025
• Advocacy, Community
• tax, chamber of commerce, federal budget, Fall Economic Statement, deficit, Local Business, new markets, Advocacy, global, Region of Waterloo, tariffs, canada, Ontario

Ontario Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy released the 2025 Ontario Fall Economic Statement on November 6. The provincial fiscal update arrived two days after the first federal budget from the Carney administration.

Expectations and interest from the provincial businesses sector was extraordinarily high as the provincial government was providing their first major economic update following the implementation of American tariffs and other global trade measures.

The Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review, according to a Ministry of Finance news release, supports the government’s plan to protect Ontario by building a more competitive and  self-reliant economy with cutting red tape, investing in infrastructure, supporting workers, improving services, and making life more affordable.

Minister Bethlenfalvy noted that with tariffs taking direct aim at Ontario workers and communities, it has never been more important for the provincial government to protect residents. Historic investments will continue across highways, transit, health care and all other public services which communities are dependent. Prior fiscal management has positioned provincial finances in the strongest place they have been in over a decade.

Significant announcements for Ontario employers include:

• Developing an Ontario Tax Action Plan which will focus on updating personal and corporate income taxes to encourage and attract investment, elevate competitiveness, and provide financial relief. An update on this initiative will be provided in the 2026 Ontario Budget. The provincial and national business sectors have been long-standing advocates for tax system reviews and reform to align with international competitors and global trading;
• An additional $100 million investment into the Ontario Together Trade Fund (OTTF) to assist small and medium enterprises diversify into new markets;
• Proposed legislation to enhance and expand the Ontario Made Manufacturing Investment Tax Credit (OMMITC).Eligibility criteria will also be expanded for investments in machinery and equipment for greater business flexibility;
• Sectors affected by American tariffs will be supported through the $5 billion Protecting Ontario Account. In August, the $1 billion Protect Ontario Financing Program was launched to support provincial businesses directly impacted by higher tariffs in the steel, aluminum, copper and auto sectors. The second and third streams will be funded through the remaining $4 billion;
• The provincial capital plan will continue with planned investments totaling over $200 billion across ten years, including $33 billion in 2025-26. The strategy will maintain employment against economic uncertainty around tariffs.

The 2025-26 deficit is estimated at $13.5 billion, an improvement of $1.1 billion from the 2025 budget. Over the medium term , a $7.8 billion deficit is forecast for 2026-27 and a surplus of $0.2 billion for 2027-28.

Since the 2025 budget, job creation projections have decreased from 73,000 to 70,000. Next year, approximately 35,000 positions will be created, an increase of 2,000 from previous forecasts.

The Greater Kitchener Waterloo Chamber of Commerce will continue to support our members through advocacy with all levels of government to assist Waterloo Region employers in maintaining and expanding their operations against all trade measures impacting southwestern Ontario. We will ensure that relevant information is provided when available.

Written by: Art Sinclair, Vice President, Public Policy & Advocacy